ギャンブル捜査について

「ギャンブル捜査（(C)小倉秀雄弁護士）」という言葉は、生まれて初めて耳にしました。「匿名の卑怯者（前同）」なら、「Anonymous Coward（アノニマス・カワード）」の単語直訳だとわかりましたが（汗。
　ギャンブル捜査じゃなくて、「ギャンブリング・インベスティゲート」なら映画「アンタッチャブル」で耳にした記憶です。

　普通「ギャンブル捜査」といえば「賭博捜査」を意味するので、小倉秀夫弁護士先生が使う意味では小倉先生の造語かと思いましたが？
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物的証拠はないけど、いちかばちか捜査してみよう、ってことでしょうか？
「まだ真犯人かどうかわからない」でも皆さんがご指摘になっているように、報道が先行した事件なんかだと厄介なことになりそうな気はします。
ちなみに松本サリンの時は私は最初からおかしい、とは思っておりました。化学の知識が有ったわけではないのですが、直前の「湾岸戦争」で化学兵器に備えた米兵の防護服のすごさを見たので、あんな軽装でサリンを作っていたならあの人が最初に亡くなっている、と直感したからです。
でも、「ロス疑惑」や「砒素カレー事件」では、はっきり言って（「犯人」として報道された人が「真犯人かどうか」）は私にはわかりません。メディアが「絵になる情報」「（視聴率や販売数アップに）都合のいい情報」だけを流す傾向にあるのも皆さんのご指摘の通りだと思います。
素人として言える事は、「推定無罪の原則」が一般になじまないなら（逮捕、即犯人という考え方が一般的であるように思いますので）有罪が確定するまで「匿名」にする、というメディアのルールを確立する必要があるように思います。尤も容疑者が政治家や有名人の場合は難しいでしょうけれど。
あと、取り調べの映像･音声の管理もきっちりしていただきたいですね。自衛隊の機密資料でも「流出」する昨今です。ウィニー経由でユーチューブにアップされたりしたら、目も当てられないことになりますから。

＞物的証拠はないけど、いちかばちか捜査してみよう、ってことでしょうか？

　将来の不確定要素に起訴不起訴がかかるという意味では「いちかばちか」という側面は否定できませんが、自白以外の証拠がどれだけあるかによって、捜査全体の評価は相当変わってくると思います。
　安易に自白に頼ろうとしているのか、できることはやり尽くしたが最後の決め手としてどうしても自白がないと起訴できない状況なのか、この違いは大きいです。

　「物的証拠はないけど、」と仰っていますが、物的証拠の有無は重要ではありますが、逮捕の着手の評価にあたっては、必ずしも決定的ではありません。

＞ここらヘンの、判断はどうなのか？が気になるのです。

　これはケースバイケースとしか言いようがありません。
　
　酔うぞさんが引用された部分は、「逮捕の着手の評価にあたっては、」とありますように、逮捕時点における評価の問題です。
　起訴時点（正確には不起訴の場合もあるので「検察庁の処分時点」）においては、その時点における証拠の全体（この中には勾留中の供述及びその供述に基づいて得られた証拠や自白の裏付けとなる証拠を含む）を検討して、有罪判決を得るに足るものであるかどうかが判断されることになります。

モトケン先生　ありがとうございます。

物的証拠の有無は重要ではありますが、逮捕の着手の評価にあたっては、必ずしも決定的ではありません。

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